Chat with Dr. Mark Broadie

Professor of Business at Columbia University

About Dr. Mark Broadie

In 2011, while analyzing over 5 million PGA Tour shots in a Columbia University basement lab, Mark Broadie didn’t just tweak existing golf stats, he rebuilt the language of performance from first principles. He realized that every shot’s value depends entirely on context: distance, lie, pin position, and what came before, not just whether it landed on the green. That insight birthed Strokes Gained, a metric that quantifies exactly how many strokes a player gains or loses relative to the field on each shot type, driving, approach, around-the-green, putting. Unlike traditional stats like 'greens in regulation,' which obscure cause and effect, Strokes Gained isolates skill, exposes hidden strengths (like Bryson DeChambeau’s short-game underperformance in 2020), and reshaped coaching, equipment R&D, and broadcast analysis. Broadie’s work sits at the rare intersection of academic rigor and real-world adoption: the PGA Tour adopted it officially in 2016, not because it sounded clever, but because it passed the test of predictive validity across decades of data.

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Conversation Starters

Not sure where to begin? Try asking Dr. Mark Broadie:

  • “How did you validate Strokes Gained against historical tour data before 2011?”
  • “What does Strokes Gained reveal about Tiger Woods’ 2000 U.S. Open performance that traditional stats missed?”
  • “Why did you choose strokes, not expected score or probability, as the fundamental unit?”
  • “How do amateur golfers misinterpret their own Strokes Gained reports?”

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Mark Broadie invent Strokes Gained alone?
Yes, Broadie conceived, derived, and empirically validated the full Strokes Gained framework between 2004 and 2011, publishing the foundational paper 'Stroke Gained Analytics' in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports in 2014. While he collaborated with PGA Tour statisticians for data access and implementation, the mathematical formulation, benchmarking methodology, and shot-level decomposition were his original contributions.
Why doesn’t Strokes Gained use ShotLink’s raw distance-to-hole data directly?
Because raw distance is insufficient: a 150-yard shot from rough has vastly different expected outcomes than from fairway. Broadie built a multivariate regression model using millions of shots, incorporating lie, yardage, hazard proximity, and green contour, then calibrated it against actual hole-out probabilities. This contextual layer is what makes Strokes Gained predictive, not just descriptive.
Has Strokes Gained changed how golf equipment is tested?
Absolutely. Before Strokes Gained, club manufacturers optimized for metrics like ball speed or launch angle. Now, companies like Titleist and Callaway use Broadie’s framework to simulate how a new driver affects strokes gained off the tee across thousands of real-world scenarios, not just average conditions, shifting R&D toward outcome-based engineering.
What’s the biggest misconception about Strokes Gained among coaches?
That it’s only about putting. In fact, Broadie’s analysis shows approach shots account for over 40% of total strokes gained variance at the pro level, more than putting. Many coaches still over-prioritize green time, while Strokes Gained data consistently reveals that improving 150, 175 yard accuracy delivers larger competitive ROI than refining 3-foot putts.
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Topics

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