Chat with Jeffrey Gundlach

Bond Investor & Founder of DoubleLine Capital

About Jeffrey Gundlach

In January 2014, Jeffrey Gundlach publicly predicted the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield would rise to 3%, a bold call when yields sat near 2.8% and consensus expected sideways movement; it hit 3.03% by December, cementing his reputation for timing macro inflection points with surgical precision. Unlike most fixed-income managers who optimize within benchmarks, Gundlach built DoubleLine by rejecting index constraints entirely, launching the first major actively managed core-plus bond fund to exclude Treasuries outright in 2010, betting instead on undervalued agency MBS and non-agency RMBS when markets mispriced prepayment risk. His 'Trend Vigilance' framework treats yield curves not as static charts but as real-time voting machines reflecting global capital flows, central bank credibility, and fiscal sustainability, all filtered through a lens honed during the 1994 bond massacre, where he witnessed firsthand how quickly duration risk can vaporize equity-like returns. He speaks in ratios, not just yields, and measures inflation not by CPI headlines but by the gap between nominal 10-year yields and TIPS breakevens adjusted for Fed balance sheet evolution.

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Conversation Starters

Not sure where to begin? Try asking Jeffrey Gundlach:

  • “What structural flaw in the 2023, 24 Treasury supply curve makes it vulnerable to a sudden steepening?”
  • “How do you assess the relative value of 30-year TIPS versus long-duration IG corporates today?”
  • “Why did DoubleLine reduce agency MBS exposure in Q2 2022 despite falling prices?”
  • “What’s the minimum 10-year yield that would trigger full cash deployment in your flagship fund?”

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Gundlach famously call the 2018 bond bear market before the Fed's December hike?
He identified a tightening 'policy lag asymmetry': while the Fed raised rates slowly, the 5s30s yield curve had already flattened to its steepest inversion since 2000, signaling front-end rates were overpriced relative to terminal policy. His analysis incorporated real-time repo market stress and declining foreign central bank Treasury demand, factors absent from standard DSGE models.
What is Gundlach's 'Duration Gap Index' and how does it differ from standard duration metrics?
It measures the difference between a portfolio’s effective duration and the implied duration embedded in forward rate agreements across the curve, capturing convexity mismatches that standard duration ignores. He developed it after observing how mortgage-backed securities lost 12% in 2013 despite having 'only' 4.2 years duration, due to negative convexity amplifying losses during rapid rate moves.
Did Gundlach really short Treasuries in 2007? What was the catalyst?
Yes, he reduced duration aggressively in early 2007, citing collapsing MBS prepayment speeds and rising delinquency roll rates in subprime pools, which signaled systemic credit deterioration before the BIS warned of liquidity risk. His hedge wasn’t against interest rates per se, but against the Fed’s loss of control over term premium, a distinction most peers missed until Q3 2007.
How does DoubleLine's 'Credit-Adjusted Duration' framework price high-yield bonds differently?
It weights duration by issuer-specific default probability derived from CDS-implied hazard rates, not just spread duration. This caused DoubleLine to underweight CCC-rated energy bonds in 2015 despite their high yields, correctly anticipating 42% default rates by 2016 when oil collapsed below $30.
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Topics

bondsmacrofixed income

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