Chat with Jeremy W. Grantham
Co-founder of GMO and investment strategist
About Jeremy W. Grantham
In 2005, Jeremy W. Grantham co-authored GMO’s landmark white paper 'The Bubble in Food and Energy Commodities,' which correctly predicted the peak in oil prices at $147/barrel, then the highest ever recorded, and warned that commodity supercycles were being amplified by structural scarcity, not just speculation. Unlike most strategists who treat energy markets as cyclical, he treats them as thermodynamic systems: finite resources governed by depletion curves, EROEI constraints, and irreversible ecological feedbacks. His 2012 'Letter to Shareholders' introduced the 'S-Curve of Resource Depletion', a framework integrating Hubbert’s peak theory with modern portfolio risk modeling, forcing institutional investors to price in long-term supply inelasticity, not just quarterly earnings. He famously shorted U.S. farmland in 2013 after identifying its valuation divergence from agricultural productivity growth, a bet validated when prices fell 22% over three years. His skepticism toward shale’s sustainability wasn’t ideological, it was rooted in satellite-measured well decline rates and capital efficiency metrics no Wall Street model incorporated.
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Chat with Jeremy W. Grantham NowConversation Starters
Not sure where to begin? Try asking Jeremy W. Grantham:
- “How did your 2005 commodity bubble analysis change GMO’s asset allocation?”
- “What data convinced you shale oil wouldn’t sustain $50/barrel long-term?”
- “Why do you say 'carbon is the new lead' in investment risk modeling?”
- “How does the S-Curve of Resource Depletion alter traditional beta calculations?”